https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-overlaps-with-afghanistan-pakistan-conflict/a-76393025
With airstrikes on Afghan territory, including the strategically important Bagram Airfield, Pakistan has declared open war on the Taliban. This escalation coincides with the war in Iran
Macron: "We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open" Strait of Hormuz. Trump says we don't need NATO.
Israel issues widest evacuation order for southern Lebanon since the major 2006 war.
Israel claims major decapitation strike: Says Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were killed, but Iran disputes. Iran rejects ceasefire, vows escalation.
Trump confirmed earlier he asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war.
New oil targeting phase as Tehran pledges to be gatekeeper of Hormuz: Ships pass only "in coordination" with Tehran - talk of separate deal-making with BRICS capitals, while Iraq is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through Hormuz.
Allies hesitate as Trump issues contradictory rhetoric: Key NATO states are refusing to join US efforts to secure Hormuz, amid lack of confidence in Trump's often shifting articulation of operation.
* * *
President Trump is not happy with NATO and is letting the world know it. First countries like Spain, Germany, and Greece made it clear they would not heed his call for a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, and on Tuesday France's Macron stated it is "not our war".
Trump said in a fresh Truth Social Post "I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need." And more:
Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer "need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World...
Without doubt, these countries have memories of Iraq and Afghanistan, which were multi-national efforts (and largely failures in terms of becoming unanticipated 'forever wars' and quagmires).
President Emmanuel Macron has just slammed the door on Trump in a huge way, though he did so in his classic meager and weak, somewhat ambiguous fashion.
He said Tuesday that though France will not immediately take part in efforts to militarily unblock the Hormuz Strait, it will continue to prepare for a potential future coalition that could provide freedom of navigation once the conflict ends.
"We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context," Macron said at the start of a cabinet meeting.
As a reminder, Trump on Monday said of Macron: "I have spoken to him. On a scale of 0 to 10, he's been an eight. Not perfect, but it's France..." And the US president added, "I think he's going to help. I spoke to him yesterday. I don't do a hard sell on them because my attitude is that we don't need anybody. We're the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world."
A new - or perhaps it should be renewed - ground war between Israel and Lebanon has fully opened, also as Beirut continues to get hit from the air. Israel told residents of southern Lebanon that its military would be conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah. The area under immediate evacuation orders is seeing the biggest Israeli-drive evacuation going all the way back to the major 2006 war.
"Remaining south of the Zahrani River could endanger your life and the lives of your families," the Israeli military's Arabic spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X. Israeli officials have meanwhile signaled readiness to fight in Lebanon even beyond the conclusion of the Iran war, which itself hasn't been subject of a timeline.
Via Rabobank note: Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship.
The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances - as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal.
Trump said when asked about the trip Monday, "I don’t know, we’re working on that right now." He added: "We’re speaking to China. I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel."
Israel is making another big 'decapitation strike' claim, saying it has taken out Iran's top security believed to be effectively running the country and the war, Ali Larijani. Israel further announced early Tuesday the longtime head of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was also killed.
If true it would mark one of the most significant blows to Tehran's leadership since the war began. But in classic fog-of-war fashion, Tehran is pushing back against Israeli statements. Tehran has presented a handwritten message attributed to him, though not exactly what passes for proof of life.
The note was released ahead of funeral ceremonies for Iranian sailors killed in a recent US strike, and urges citizens to show support for the national 'martyrs' - but in the end does little to clarify whether Larijani is alive or dead. Just days ago he was seen marching defiantly in the streets of Tehran with other high-ranking officials as US-Israeli bombs fell not too far away.
The IDF announcement proclaiming his alleged death:
"The martyrdom of the brave members of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic in Dena is part of the sacrifices of the proud nation that has emerged in this time of struggle against international oppressors," Larijani wrote, in what could prove to be his last message. If he is deceased, he is likely to quickly be replaced.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is calling on citizens to flood the streets for mass funerals of sailors killed when the IRIS Dena was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Enemies "should know that in the shadow of the name of each of these high-ranking martyrs, thousands of other brave men will rise," he said.
Most importantly, he announced that Islamic Republic leadership is rejecting any talk of de-escalation. Iran will exact a steep cost against its aggressors, he vowed. It is not "the right time for peace until the United States and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation," a senior official was quoted in Al Jazeera as saying, describing the position as "very tough and serious."
Iran's messaging here has been consistent. On Monday when President Trump claimed Tehran was "talking" - and later there were reports of text messages between Iran's FM Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran's government was quick to call this fake news.
"We don’t ask for ceasefire, but this war must end, in a way that our enemies never again think about repeating such attacks," Araghchi has said. Central Israel has also continued to see inbound projectiles, also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back on blockade claims, while signaling Tehran is effectively managing traffic through the critical chokepoint - as it tries to play nice with its BRICS allies but tries to keep the leverage on Washington, its allies, and the global economy.
"Ships from some countries passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said, framing Iran's position as ultimately as the gatekeeper of the world's most important oil artery. "Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of ships."
This could include pledges for Indian, Chinese, and Russian safe passage - and there's been evidence of some of these getting through, just as in the Houthis Red Sea crisis of last year.
On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions," adding that "there is no longer any security."
"We have no hostility toward regional countries," Baghad also said. "What we target are American bases and assets." This after a likely Iranian-made drone hit the US Embassy in Baghad to start of this week, and also a drone slammed into the central Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad's highly protected Green Zone.
Air defenses in the Green Zone engaged incoming threats, but to no avail - the drones still got through. At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly in the crosshairs.
A drone attack forced the shutdown of a gas field in Abu Dhabi, while a tanker was reportedly hit by an "unknown projectile" near a UAE oil port - only adding more pressure to already volatile markets and pushing oil prices higher.
C-RAM System reportedly seen in action, but is Green Zone's defense crumbling?
Still, amid all this, NATO allies are holding back - perhaps confused and lacking confidence in President Trump's daily shifting rhetoric, and as sometimes Trump issues contradictory messaging on the same day, or even in the very same presser.
"What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?" German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Monday. "This is not our war, we have not started it."
What the Western allies see...
Some leading NATO powers have made clear they won't directly support any military effort to unblock the strait - including Germany, Italy, and Spain.
President Trump himself has conceded this week of Western partners: "Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me." Naturally they might be looking back only to last year and the Gaza War, when the major US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea struggled to halt Houthi attacks on global shipping, resulting in a stalemate and uneasy status quo where the Iran-linked Houthis built a lot of leverage.
Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas has written on X. "Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,"
Blas listed the IRGC's attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:
Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit
Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked
Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms
He explained that these attacks suggest "Iran has started a new phase of its oil war" against Gulf states aligned with the US. "Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea," Blas said. Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA's 32-nation "historic" emergency SPR release. Read our fuller analysis here.
The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday.
“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA).
Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.
Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
(Via The Daily Bell)
After a string of high-profile home in invasions in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) in which the homeowners were shot by their assailants, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is going to bat for his constituents: asking Ottawa to approve the use of (checks notes)… pepper spray for self defence.
Currently section 88 of Canada’s Criminal Code makes it illegal to possess, let alone use pepper spray in any capacity.
“Everyone commits an offence who carries or possesses a weapon … for a purpose dangerous to the public peace or for the purpose of committing an offence.“
Many say we need a “Castle Doctrine” in Canada – which most liberal boomers oppose, probably because they feel it would be too… American. The US is one of only three countries in the world where gun ownership is constitutionally protected, the other two are Mexico and Guatemala, which aren’t exactly helping the case.
But all that is really needed is some language around Section 88 to clarify that defending oneself, or family, or home is not an offense.
In Switzerland, for example, the rate of gun ownership is among the highest in the world. The Swiss have a statutory right to acquire and possess arms “within the framework of this law” – which involves a background check and a clean criminal record. Entirely reasonable.
Meanwhile, here in Canada, the two-tier justice system will perpetually re-release violent offenders, give so-called “immigrant discounts” on sentencing for violators who are not yet citizens and charge the home owners or occupants when backed against the wall and have the audacity to defend themselves.
Here’s Brampton MP and “Secretary of State for Combatting Crime” Ruby Sahota laying it out for us:
“We don’t want to create a system where people feel they have the right to shoot and kill somebody.”
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – when it comes to violent crime and human trafficking in Canada – nothing will change until the incentives change.
And right now, the incentives are entirely in favour or criminality. In 2021 it was Alberta who requested the legalization of pepper spray, and the Liberal Federal government rejected it.
(Remember to leave your key fobs at the door, hosers).
We’re on our own – which is why we’re building a support community for politically homeless Canadians. Head on over to Ready.ca today and get involved.
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Four teens were arrested Monday on suspicion of setting off an explosion outside a Dutch synagogue, which Israel claims was conducted by a new terrorist group.
Prosecutors say the teens, who were not publicly identified, were behind the terror attack at a synagogue in the port city of Rotterdam, where the explosion caused a blaze inside the temple on Friday.
The arson attack was specifically “aimed at instilling serious fear in a population group, in this case the Jewish community,” the Rotterdam Public Prosecutor’s Office said in a statement.
The suspects — two 19-year-olds, an 18-year-old and a 17-year-old — were arrested shortly after the explosion outside the temple, with the teens caught near another synagogue in Rotterdam.
The suspects were ordered held for two weeks as police investigate the attack.
Witnesses, victims say attackers made antisemitic comments before assault
Three men are in custody after turning themselves in for a stomach-churning assault at a San Jose restaurant that left two Israeli-American victims battered and the community on edge.
The suspects — Ramon Akoyans, 18, Roma Akoyans, 20, and Bruneil Chamaki, 32 — surrendered to San Jose police on Monday, roughly a week after they allegedly targeted two men speaking Hebrew outside Augustine, a restaurant on Santana Row.
The broad-daylight attack, which investigators are probing as a potential hate crime, was caught on video and has since gone viral. Three men, wearing black T-shirts, repeatedly pummel someone on the ground in the video from KTVU.
“The victims alleged that the suspects used antisemitic language during the altercation,” police said last week.
“While they were waiting for their table, three people came up to them out of nowhere and knocked one of the victims out cold and then three of them jumped on top of the other victim,” Jewish Silicon Valley CEO Daniel Klein told KTVU. Both of the victims are Israeli-American men, and one was reportedly knocked unconscious during the attack.
“We recognize the community’s concern about this incident and appreciate the patience shown as investigators worked methodically to ensure the case was handled thoroughly and correctly,” the San Jose PD wrote on X. “Those responsible for this violent crime will be held accountable.”
The case remains active, and the San Jose PD is working with the Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office. The DA’s Office is expected to provide more details soon.
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