Thursday, October 1, 2009

Iran Is Really An A+ Adversary

Unfortunately the Iranians aren't stupid and are doing a great job in delaying the US. They have just agreed:

in principle to send "most" of its known stockpile of enriched uranium for processing abroad to make fuel rods for a medical research reactor, in what U.S. and European officials said Thursday after day long talks in Geneva would be a significant move that would delay Iran's potential to build a nuclear weapon.

...

U.S. and European officials also said Iran had agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the newly revealed uranium enrichment facility that Iran's has been building in secret at Qom, in north central Iran. The officials said they expected Iran to comply fully with the IAEA within two weeks. The two sides agreed to meet for further talks by the end of the month.
With an opening gambit like that, the end of year deadlines that Obama has been touting are now out the window (as have the rest of his deadlines). This also gives ammo to the US and EU to pressure Israel not to do anything, even if there is no actual cooperation by Iran (they can still hide uranium and weapons capabilities). On top of that, Iran is looking to get some quid pro quo:

In turn, Mr. Jalili raised issues that Iran has said it wants future talks to focus on, including regional security, the disarmament of nuclear armed states, and the global economic crisis. Mr. Jalili said a press conference later that it was these issues Iran wants to discuss when the negotiators meet again.
Regional security probably refers to the Israel-Palestinian issue. Disarmament of nuclear armed states means forcing Israel to give up their nukes. And the reference to the global economic crisis is the Iranian way of looking for a bribe, oh sorry, I meant aid. So instead of the Iranians getting all the pressure, watch the pressure ratchet up on Israel, with the Iranians gliding by the next several months. Don't be surprised if after several months of diplomatic "progress" the Iranians kick out inspectors and announce a nuclear weapon. That would only come though after the aid check has been written. Didn't the North Koreans do exactly the same thing back in 1994?

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