Some Scary Thoughts

So I was just thinking about what might happen if the Israelis do end up having to attack Iran in order to at least delay Iran going nuclear. Most of the scenarios I've seen in terms of Iranian retaliation are relatively mild. The two main thrusts are likely to be the closing of the Strait of Hormuz (which most estimates say they could only close for about 3 days) and Hizballah launching rocket attacks at Israel from their bases in Lebanon (until the Israeli military neutralizes them, which they will this time as Bibi is no Olmert). Neither one will have a major impact on Israel or the West. Sure oil prices may skyrocket and some Israeli cities will be attacked but within a week or two things will be relatively normal. The problem is that the Iranians know all this and are not stupid automatons going on a set route like in some wargame. They have been an A+ level adversary for the last 30 years and have outmaneuvered quite a few American administrations. I don't expect that will change now.

I think the biggest and possibly scariest surprise would be Turkey joining the fight on the side of Iran. Turkey is a muslim country with an Islamist running it and has lately distanced itself from Israel and started to show signs of allying with Iran. Imagine if they have already agreed to military cooperation in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran? It's not so unthinkable. While the military may be relatively pro-west and pro-Israel the media will paint Israel as a troublesome aggressor and so the pro-western forces in the Turkish military might find their hands tied (if they haven't been purged already). Turkey has a modern, 1 million man military and while they don't border Israel, they could theoretically go through Syria and attack the Jewish state that way. They could also use their 900+ aircraft Air Force, which has F-16's, to challenge the Israeli Air Force for domination of the skies. And it gets worse. Remember, Turkey is in NATO. So if Turkey sides with Iran and Israel retaliates against Turkey, could the rest of NATO be drawn into the fight on Turkey's and Iran's side? I know that is far fetched but it could make for a messy situation. At the very least it would create a problem for American resupply of the Israelis in their hour of greatest need. How would they be able to supply Israel if it is also fighting a NATO ally?

Anyway, I'm probably just being paranoid, but it is something to think about. Losing Turkey to Islamists could be one of the greatest blunders in recent history.