Thursday, July 2, 2009

The New Manchurian Candidate

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, preferring to believe in Robert Heinlein's dictum 'Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity', however, here's a little thought experiment:

If I were a Chinese politburo member looking to expand my external trade over the next several decades and I had some money to give to US political candidates, I could, if I were shortsighted, try to influence some current trade deals in my favor or get some illegal technology transfer. If I were longsighted though, I might try to find some US pol who was already a bit nutty about environmental issues and make a deal to make him very rich by having him put on boards of companies it could influence and paying him lots of money funneled through various businesses of his in exchange for his help in putting their main competitor, the US, at an enormous trade disadvantage by imposing enormous energy costs on all of their output while at the same time making energy cheaper for the Chinese, because of the reduction in US demand. I can't imagine a plan more destructive to US interests and more helpful to Chinese interests than the Waxman-Markey bill and if I were a top Chinese official I would certainly pay a lot to make sure it gets passed.

Now I have no evidence that Al Gore or Waxman or Markey et al have ever taken a cent from the Chinese Govt (except for the documented illegal campaign contributions when he was VP, the penalty for which was a firm talking to), but it could make the plot of a fine Hollywood thriller (for which, of course, they would change the villian into an evil Republican Senator taking Chinese money to support free-trade legislation).

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