What to do when the experts are wrong

HUGE UPDATE: Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx Used Imperial College Model — NOW CONFIRMED AS A COMPLETE FRAUD — To Persuade President Trump to Lock Down Entire US Economy!

By Jim Hoft 
Published May 6, 2020 at 7:47pm 

** Dr. Tony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx used the Imperial College Model to persuade President Trump to lock down the ENTIRE US ECONOMY.
** The fraudulent model predicted 2.2 million American deaths from the coronavirus pandemic
** The authors of the Imperial College Model shared their findings with the White House Coronavirus task force in early March
** Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx then met with President Trump privately and urged him to shut down the US economy and destroy the record Trump economy
** A new critique of the Imperial College Model finds the study is “completely unusable for scientific purposes” — The study is a sham
** Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx pushed a garbage model on the White House and the American public and destroyed the US economy

As reported weeks ago — in mid April Dr. Fauci admitted that it was he and Dr. Birx who persuaded President Trump to lock down the US economy knowing the massive destruction this would cause in jobs, lives and commerce.

President admitted that during a press conference in April that “two very smart people” came into his office and urged him to lock down the economy or 2.2 million Americans would die from the China virus.
But President Trump did not say who those “two very smart people” were.

President Trump: The big projection being that 2.2 million people would die if we did nothing. That was another decision we made, close it up. That was a big decision that we made. Two very smart people walked into my office and said listen these are your alternatives. And that was a projection of 1.5 to 2.2 million people would die if we didn’t close it up. That’s a lot of people.

00:0101:31

Dr. Fauci later admitted he persuaded the president to shut down and kill off the US economy.

This guy has been wrong every step of the way.

CBS Evening News

✔@CBSEveningNews

Dr. Anthony Fauci: "I can tell you, the first and only time that I said we should do mitigation strongly, the response was, 'yes, we'll do it.'" https://cbsn.ws/2Xxj7af 

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Sheri Fink at The New York Times back on March 16, 2020, described the scenario that led to the US economic lockdown.

In her report Fink describes how Imperial College researchers including Neil Ferguson shared their projections with Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx and the White House coronavirus task force.  They even sent a copy of their report to the task force before its release.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said…

…Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.

Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.

After Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci sat with the president the US went into lockdown and since that time over 30 MILLION Americans have lost their jobs and thousands of companies have gone bankrupt.

In late March, Neil Ferguson, who was behind the Imperial College coronavirus study, backtracked and said 20,000 Brits may die from the coronavirus instead of his original estimates of 500,000.

Neil Ferguson resigned from his government post as researcher this week after he was caught breaking his own lockdown rules by meeting with his married mistress at his home.

And now Sue Denim, a software engineer for 30 years, studied the Dr. Ferguson’s model and concluded it is complete garbage and cannot be scientifically replicated.

In her concluding remarks Denim says the Imperial College model “should be retracted immediately.”

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.

On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

Via Andrew Bostom.