Uh oh: Home sales fall, mortgage demand crashes to 22-year low
If the economy can be likened to a game of musical chairs, it looks like the music is ending for the housing market — fast. Two big indicators today show that the Federal Reserve’s actions to tighten money supply as a brake on inflation has already had a big impact. Mortgage demand crashed to a 22-year low last week, leaving sellers potentially in a situation where prices may have to fall:
Mortgage demand fell more than 6% last week compared with the previous week, hitting the lowest level since 2000, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week and were 19% lower than the same week in 2021. Buyers have been contending with high prices all year, but with rates almost double what they were in January, they’ve lost considerable purchasing power. …
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.82% from 5.74%, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 3.11% the same week one year ago.
That hasn’t just hit the home sales market, to which we’ll get in a moment. It’s hitting refinancing as well, with implications for secondary effects in related industries:
Demand for refinances, which are highly rate sensitive, fell 4% for the week and were 80% lower than the same week last year. Those applications are also at a 22-year low, but the drop in demand from homebuyers caused the refinance share of mortgage activity to increase to 31.4% of total applications from 30.8% the previous week.
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