The War with Iran is opening old wounds
When news broke of US and Israeli strikes on Iran on the morning of 28th February, many feared the worst. The Middle East had long been beset by geopolitically charged sectarian differences which, when mapped onto a range of political and socio-economic issues, erupted in violence in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, Syria and Yemen.
Civil wars in Lebanon and Iraq took place along broadly sectarian lines with deadly consequences.
In recent years, sectarian tensions had largely been put to one side, aided by the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalisation agreement that restored diplomatic relations which had been severed after the execution of the Saudi Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in 2016. In the years that followed the agreement signed in Beijing, many of the geopolitical tensions which had played such a prominent role in shaping sectarian schisms were transformed.
The outbreak of war has changed things. The killing of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader and a spiritual leader to Shia Muslims around the world provoked outrage, prompting protests across the Muslim world. The protests revived old anxieties and suspicions about the loyalties of Shia groups across the region which were then exacerbated as video footage of some Bahrainis celebrating Iranian attacks on the US 5th fleet was shared on social media.
On April 30, 69 Bahrainis had their citizenship revoked for what Manama’s interior ministry referred to as “glorifying or sympathising with hostile Iranian acts, or engaging in contacts with external parties”. In Kuwait, thousands of individuals also had their citizenship revoked for social media posts. In the UAE, an “Iran-linked” terror plot was dismantled by state security forces who, on Arabic news channels, referred to it as a Shia plot. Increasingly, the Gulf’s Shia populations are being forced to choose between membership of their sect and their nationality, with nationalist discourse becoming increasingly exclusionary. Such strategies were not new. In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Bahrain and Kuwait narratives of sectarian manipulation, perfidious interference and 5th columnists were regularly used to justify the use of force and restrictions on civil liberties, while citizenship revocation became increasingly common.
The opening up of sectarian cleavages has also been a deliberate strategy, one seemingly designed to undermine and destabilise states across the region perhaps best seen in the case of Lebanon. Though a nominal ceasefire exists between Lebanon and Israel, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues, resulting in the destruction of Shia villages along the border. In this period, close to 3,000 have been killed and more than a million forced from their homes since March 2026. Evacuation orders have been issued to villages across the south, with instructions issued to non-Shia communities not to provide shelter to their Shia counterparts, seemingly in an effort to exacerbate sectarian differences across the state. In such a febrile environment, sectarian tensions have risen dramatically, with displaced people often being refused refuge amidst allegations of being members of or loyal to Hezbollah, or out of fear at possible Israeli strikes.
The situation is dramatically different from the last conflict between Hezballah and Israel (2023-2024), when people from across Lebanese society expressed support for their Shia kin, donating blood and providing support in the aftermath of the deadly ‘pager attacks’. Since then, relations within Lebanese society have deteriorated. In 2026, the government of Nawaf Salam declared Hezbollah’s military wing unlawful. But the Lebanese armed forces have been both unable and unwilling to disarm Hezbollah by force, fearful of a return to civil war. This inability – and the ensuing attacks from Hezbollah – prompted the continued occupation of Lebanese sovereign territory south of the Litany River as a “buffer zone”, empowering voices in Israel calling for the “settlement” of south Lebanon in the process.
In a piece published by Arab News on the 9th May 2026, Prince Turki Al-Faisal observed how an Israeli plan to ignite war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and drag the region into “the furnace of destruction” had failed. Though an all out war between the Saudis (and other Gulf states) and Iran has thus far been avoided, the US-Israeli-Iran war has opened old sectarian wounds, with devastating consequences for life across the region.
As history has shown, sectarianism can pose serious challenges to social cohesion and stability within and between states, but when mapped onto geopolitical rivalries, the consequences can be devastating. Closer examination of the past decade shows that sectarian tensions can be addressed, though perhaps not always in a way that makes future instances of animosity impossible. When such issues are geopolitically charged, as the war with Iran shows, the consequences can be catastrophic for people across the region. Without a lasting resolution to the conflict, old wounds will not heal.
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