Covid lies:“highly uncertain modelling” with a “degree of confidence and authority that the underlying evidence cannot sustain”.

Statistics Watchdog Intervenes Over “Questionable” Vaccine Data Cited by Covid Inquiry

https://dailysceptic.org/2026/06/28/statistics-watchdog-intervenes-over-questionable-vaccine-data-cited-by-covid-inquiry/

BY RICHARD ELDRED

 

28 JUNE 2026 11:00 AM 

The statistics watchdog has formally intervened after two Oxford academics complained that the Covid Inquiry cited “highly uncertain modelling”. The Telegraph has the story:

Two Oxford academics wrote to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to complain that in its latest report, the inquiry cited “highly uncertain modelling” with a “degree of confidence and authority that the underlying evidence cannot sustain”.

Prof Carl Heneghan, Director of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Dr Tom Jefferson, a Senior Associate Tutor at the university, contacted the statistics watchdog last month.

They said the inquiry “repeatedly” stated that Covid vaccination “saved millions of lives globally” and cited estimates that 449,241 lives were saved in England and 25,386 in Scotland by March 2023.

They pointed out, however, that those estimates were “derived from mathematical models that rely on assumptions about vaccine efficacy, waning immunity, prior infection, behavioural responses and hypothetical counterfactual scenarios that were never observed”.

Responding to their letter, the OSR said it had formally contacted the Covid Inquiry and issued advice on how it could assist the public with their understanding of different types of modelling….

This is the latest controversy relating to the inquiry’s use of modelling in its reports. Earlier this year, the statistics watchdog criticised the inquiry for stating that 23,000 deaths could have been avoided if the UK had locked down earlier.

Prof Heneghan told the Telegraph that he welcomed the OSR’s response, which he said was “significant”, as it showed it had “accepted the substance of our concern”.

“This is a huge inquiry which has incredibly important findings and recommendations, and the fact it is costing over £200 million. They need to understand what is evidence based,” he said.

Prof Heneghan added that between him and Dr Jefferson, they have “60 years of experience judging the quality of evidence”, saying: “In that time, we have learned one simple lesson: models are not facts.”

Worth reading in full.