America in retreat...

PRODUCING PANIC IN AMERICA'S ALLIES

March 17, 2009 --
THE Obama administration has offered to talk to America's enemies across the globe, especially in the Middle East. So far, though, the offer has few takers.
Iran has called for "substantial changes in US foreign policy" as a precondition for talks. Syria wants the US to shut down the UN investigation into the murder of Lebanese ex-Premier Rafiq Hariri and insists on reviving its domination of Lebanon before "substantive talks" with Washington. The Taliban insists on "the complete withdrawal of foreign troops" from Afghanistan before it will consider talks.
Well, if your enemies won't talk to you, why not talk to your friends? But this is precisely what the new administration doesn't want to do - for that would look like continuing the Bush administration's "failed policies."
Notably, President Obama did not respond to greeting messages from America's Mideast allies until weeks after he'd entered the White House. The Iraqi leadership had to wait three weeks. Afghan President Hamid Karzai waited 40 days. Leaders of traditional allies such as Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia didn't wait as long - but got only protocol calls devoid of political content.
Obama's emissaries to the region have made it clear that the new administration is keener on cultivating its foes than courting its friends.
Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, spoke of his desire to engage the Taliban but cited "scheduling problems" in not meeting America's friends among Afghan and Pakistani elites. In Kabul, he made it all but clear that the new administration sees the Karzai presidency as part of the "Bush legacy." In Pakistan, he sent signals that Washington is not keen on supporting President Asif Ali Zardari's government.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton granted Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora only a photo-op handshake during a conference on Gaza held in Egypt. Siniora, whose coalition government faces a crucial election in June, had hoped for a "convincing show of American support." Instead, he was cold-shouldered.
Concern that the US may be abandoning its allies has led to a number of panic moves. Last week, Saudi Arabia hosted a four-nation summit of Arab leaders that welcomed Syria back as a major player in regional politics. In exchange, the Syrians obtained a "right of observation" in Lebanon that they'll use to influence the outcome of that country's coming election.
In Afghanistan, Karzai's opponents have launched a campaign to prevent him from seeking a new term. And pro-Iran circles are harping on the theme of Iran as "the reliable protector" of the new regime in Kabul at a time the Americans seem to want to restore the Taliban to power.
In Iraq, concern about US retreat has divided the Kurds, Washington's strongest allies in that country. Massoud Barzani is trying to forge an alliance with Turkey to counterbalance Iran in the post-American era. Jalal Talabani (the other chief Kurdish leader) argues that, once the Americans leave, only Iran could protect the new Iraq against revenge-seeking Sunni Arab powers. Even Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, always suspicious of Tehran's intentions in Iraq, feels obliged to placate the mullahs by offering their protégé, Muqtada al-Sadr, a share of power.
In Pakistan, Zardari's opponents, convinced that the US no longer backs him, have launched a series of nationwide protests. Ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, under whose rule the Taliban conquered most of Afghanistan, is trying to stage a comeback by branding Zardari as "an American tool installed by Bush and abandoned by Obama."
Turkey, meanwhile, fears that Obama may strike a "grand bargain" with the mullahs, acknowledging Iran as the region's principal power. That would leave Turkey in the lurch - unable to join the European Union and marginalized in the Mideast. Those fears prompted Turkey's President Abdullah Gul to find an excuse to visit Tehran - where he became the first Turkish president ever to meet Iranian "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei.
Thanks to the perception that the United States is in retreat while the Islamic Republic is rising, Tehran in recent weeks has played host to a dozen presidents and prime ministers from Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. In every case, the idea is to make a deal with the Iranians before Obama makes a deal with them.
America's new policy, or lack of it, could have a devastating impact on the chances of democratic forces throughout the region as it faces crucial elections in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Algeria. America's enemies in the region may achieve a strategic coup before Obama has developed a credible Middle East policy.
Amir Taheri's new book is "The Persian Night."