Obama Has Set a Trap on Himself

From David Ignatius at the WaPo:

When I asked Obama if the Taliban wouldn't simply wait us out, he was dismissive: "This is an argument that I don't give a lot of credence to, because if you follow the logic of this argument, then you would never leave. Right? Essentially you'd be signing on to have Afghanistan as a protectorate of the United States indefinitely."

Obama thinks that setting deadlines will force the Afghans to get their act together at last. That strikes me as the most dubious premise of his strategy. He is telling his adversary that he will start leaving on a certain date, and telling his ally to be ready to take over then, or else. That's the weak link in an otherwise admirable decision -- the idea that we strengthen our hand by announcing in advance that we plan to fold it.

Obama is wrong. You leave when you destroy the Taliban. Not some arbitrary date in time for the next Presidential election. This reminds me of what happened during Vietnam. The NVA and Vietcong would time attacks (physical and diplomatic) to coincide with key points in the American electoral process, figuring they could either get more concessions from the US at the bargaining table at these times or that the American leadership would be too chicken to fight back too hard at those times. So if I were a Taliban, I would essentially put my guns away in a safe place and wait out the Americans, occasionally coordinating a terrorist attack to make sure things don't get TOO normal. When the Americans start pulling out, I would start an offensive. If the Americans continue to pull out then it will look like they are retreating under enemy fire. If they stay, then it would be clear that the President's strategy from 2009/10 was a complete failure. So seems like Obama's strategy is win-win for the Taliban if they play it right.