Climate Headbangers Crawl from the Wreckage of RCP8.5 ‘Implausible’ Finding Spinning Nothing-to-See-Here Claims
It has taken a few days for the climate headbangers to work out the best spin to counter the recent IPCC ruling that the RCP8.5 computer model pathway is “implausible”. Necessary work of course, since the shock ruling from the UN’s main climate science body about a set of impossible assumptions destroyed the validity of almost every mainstream Net Zero-supporting climate scare story published over the last 15 years. First out of the traps was Adam Vaughan of the Times, who said that the most apocalyptic worst-case scenario had been ruled out “thanks to the rapid rise in renewable energy”.
This is the feeble explanation given by the IPCC ‘s own ‘implausible’ authors but, alas, it is not borne out by the facts. In 2011 at the start of the RCP8.5 madness, wind and solar accounted for 0.8% of world energy production. According to the latest fully compiled figures for 2023 from The World in Data, the percentage rose to 4.5%. In other words, the percentage of total global wind and solar energy supply rose from negligible to almost negligible – this despite trillions of dollars being spent on an increasingly expensive source of unreliable and industry-destroying power.
Supporters were quick to run with this seemingly best explanation.
Negligible is a word that also springs to mind given that Vince’s Ecotricity UK onshore wind turbine operation contributes just 0.06 % of current UK electricity generation. Over the last 20 years, he has collected a far from negligible £145 million in subsidy paid by the British consumer. Electricity only accounts for 20% of all UK energy consumption, so Vince’s contribution to the overall total at 0.012% is not so much negligible as practically invisible. Calculations on how much global warming has been saved by all this expensive effort are sadly impossible to calculate.
In passing, Vince also notes a new high scenario figure of 3.5°C, down from 4.5°C. This figure is also mentioned by Adam Vaughan, and it arises from slightly different calculations. The rise of temperature established under RCP8.5 is generally held to be 3.9°C by 2100 from a 1850-1900 baseline. The science writer Roger Pielke Jr., who first drew public attention to the “implausible” finding, calculates that a newly proposed high scenario has an upper temperature rise of 3°C. Still ridiculous, of course, since this is the IPCC, a politically-funded body that gives scientific backing to the belief that almost all global warming in the industrial age is caused by a few trace gases in the atmosphere. Since pre-industrial times, and the lifting of the Little Ice Age, the Earth has warmed around 1°C. All is not lost it seems for clickbait scientists and their willing messengers flaming up bizarre claims in mainstream media. Now the high-end assumptions fed into computer models suggest a possible rise of about 2°C in just 74 years compared with 3°C. Come back Roger Hallam and Extinction Rebellion – all is forgiven.
To digress for a moment. It will be interesting to see if Dale Vince has changed his mind on jailing climate deniers in the light of RCP8.5’s demise. In July 2024, he posted on Twitter, now X, the following in support of five climate vandals who had brought the vital London M25 ring-road to a halt. One of the lunatic disrupters putting emergency services at grave risk was Roger Hallam, who was subsequently imprisoned for five years. The conspiracy was organised by Just Stop Oil, a group given £340,000 by Vince.
The “facing the end of the world” defence has more than a touch of RCP8.5 hysteria about it. Is Vince still in favour of jailing people who have questioned some of the ridiculous stories that have arisen from this now discredited set of assumptions? Are there any other parts of the inquiring scientific process where he thinks jail time is appropriate for those who question the ‘settled’ narrative? I think we should be told.
Alas, Vaughan’s article indicates that the Old Guard has not given up on Hallam-style warnings of the coming apocalypse. IPCC scenario lead author Detlef van Vuuren said that “uncertainties” in how sensitive Earth’s climate is to more greenhouse gases “mean that even under this slightly lower emissions pathway, warming could still end up exceeding 4°C”. Phrases like that of course give the green light to future scaremongering designed to prop up the fading hard-Left Net Zero fantasy. The “uncertainties” noted over carbon dioxide are unlikely to surround the lack of a conclusive temperature link over 600 million years, or a consideration that the Earth has thrived in the past with gas levels many times higher than today’s denuded levels. No chance. When you are deliberately stoking mass climate psychosis for population controlling aims, the uncertainty scare is all about slyly suggesting scenarios that even King Charles, Sir David Attenborough and the Swedish Doom Goblin might think a bit rich.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor. Follow him on X.
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