The start of the third quarter saw a deterioration in business conditions at US manufacturers as new orders declined for the first time in three months, according to S&P Global.
This makes sense as we have seen 'hard' US macro data serially disappoint for three months.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 in July, dropping into contraction for the first time since Dec 2023.
ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.8 (48.8 exp) - weakest since Nov 2023 (near post-COVID lockdown lows)
Hundreds of cities across the United States now have starter homes priced at $1 million dollars or more, as housing shortages push prices to record highs, according to real estate marketplace Zillow.
What do fairytales and scientific papers have in common? Consider the story of Rumpelstiltskin.
A poor miller tries to impress the king by claiming his daughter can spin straw into gold. The avaricious king locks up the girl and tells her to spin out the gold. She fails, until a goblin, Rumpelstiltskin, comes to her rescue.
In science, publishers and editors of academic journals prefer to publish demonstrably new findings – gold – rather than replications or refutations of findings which have been published already. This “novelty pressure” requires presentation of results that are “significant” – usually that includes being “statistically significant.”
In the conventional realm of null-hypothesis testing of significance, this means using a threshold probability. Usually in biology and medicine the accepted cutoff is a probability of 0.05 (a chance of 5%, or one in 20) and its use is explicitly written into the description of the methods section of publications. Some branches of science, such as genetics and physics, use more stringent probability thresholds. But the necessity of having a threshold remains.
How do researchers create the illusion of novelty in a result when the finding has a probability value close to, but on the wrong side of, the stated probability threshold – for example, a probability of 0.06? Talk it up, spin out a story! It’s the fairytale of Rumpelstiltskin in modern garb.
Here are more than 500 examples of pretzel logic researchers have used to make claims of significance despite p values higher than .05. It would be comical if not for the serious obfuscation of science which the stories cause.
In recent years, the practice of claiming importance and true significance for such results has been termed “spin.” More formally, we call it “reporting that could distort the interpretation of results and mislead readers.”
Increasingly, scholars are quantifying and analyzing the practice of spinning probability values. Linked to our development of a “Quality Output Checklist and Content Assessment” (i.e. QuOCCA) as a tool for assessing research quality and reproducibility, my colleagues and I have measuredhow often spin occurs in three prestigious journals, the Journal of Physiology, the British Journal of Pharmacology and the Journal of Neurophysiology.
We found when probability values were presented in the results section of the publication, but were not quite statistically significant (greater than 0.05 but less than 0.10), authors talked up the findings and spun out a story in about 55%-65% of publications. Often, they wrote results “trended” to significance. Thus, results of straw can become results of gold! Attractive to the researchers, editors, publishing houses and universities.
Putting spin on insignificant probability values is an egregious and shonky – that’s dubious, for our friends outside of Australia – scientific practice. It shows the authors’ failure to appreciate the requirement of an absolute threshold for claiming the presence (or not) of an effect, or for supporting (or not) a hypothesis. It reveals an entrenched and incorrigible capacity for bias. Furthermore, the authors seem unaware of the fact that a probability value of, say, 0.07 is not even justifiable as a trend: The addition of further samples or participants does not inexorably move the probability value below the 0.05 threshold.
The number of instances of spin within a publication has no theoretical limit; any probability value above 0.05 could be talked up. However, while our previous audits of publications in three journals have occasionally found more than one example of spin within a single publication, such casess seemed rare.
A 2022 paper in the British Journal of Pharmacology titled “Deferiprone attenuates neuropathology and improves outcome following traumatic brain injury,” has obliterated this impression. On at least 25 occasions, the authors overhype results linked to a probability value exceeding 0.05. Some of the offending explanations use phrases such as: “did not reach significance but showed a strong trend (p=0.075);” “a trending yet non-significant preservation of neurons was seen;” “no significant changes were seen in proBDNF despite an increased trend.”
In the publication, by Daglas and colleagues, many probability values between 0.05 and 0.10 were spun, but even values above 0.10 were considered “trendy.” These included values of 0.11, 0.14, 0.16, 0.17, 0.23 and 0.24. The authors have not responded to my request for comment,
As the 2024 Paris Olympics get underway, it is tempting to ask: Does the featured publication set a World Record for scientific spin? Comment with your entries, please.
What should be done about the prevalence of spinning probability values? This question is part of a bigger dilemma. All levels of the “industry” of science know the problems caused by perpetuating shonky science, but their attempts at regulation and improvement are fraught with difficulty and impeded by self-interest. Education about science publication and mandatory requirements before publication are potentially helpful steps.
The messages from Rumpelstiltskin should be that spinning straw can lead to trouble, and science is not a fairytale.
Simon Gandevia is deputy director of Neuroscience Research Australia.
Eighty years ago, 4,300 Sinti and Roma were murdered in Auschwitz in only one night. Christian Pfeil survived the Nazi genocide and later experienced racist attacks. He has a warning for society.
The US, Russia, and others have agreed to a prisoner swap. The exchange is said to involve WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, ex-US Marine Paul Whelan, and Russian-UK Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza.
The latest development concerns Ukraine's decision to put Russian oil company Lukoil on a sanctions list, forcing it to stop delivering pipeline crude oil — via Ukrainian territory — to the few EU countries still receiving it.
What's going on with Lukoil and who is affected?
In late June, Ukraine hardened existing sanctions against Lukoil, effectively preventing the company from using Ukraine as a transit country through which to deliver pipeline crude oil to other countries.
Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic still receive Russian crude oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline — which passes through Ukraine — from Lukoil and other suppliers.
The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) told DW that combined, the three countries imported €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) worth of crude oil from Russia in the first six months of 2024.
Hungary and Slovakia are the most dependent and their respective governments also have pro-Moscow leanings. They reacted angrily to Kyiv's move and last week asked the European Commission to formally mediate with Ukraine over the issue.
A spokesperson for the European Commission told DW: "The Commission is currently gathering detailed information on whether and how Ukraine's measure might impact the supply of crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Commission has addressed detailed questions to Slovakia and Hungary to establish a complete analysis and reached out to Ukrainian authorities."
"These questions relate to volumes of the current oil transit, legal entities shipping the oil through Ukraine and contracts in place, possibilities for alternative routes of supply as well as the cost of it," the spokesperson added.
Hungary relies on Russia for around 70% of its oil imports, with Lukoil accounting for half that figure.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Ukraine's measures threaten Hungary's energy security while energy experts have said that if a solution is not found, the country could be dealing with soaring electricity prices and power cuts within weeks.
When CNN calls out a Democrat for lying, it’s worth sitting up and taking notice. That’s just what happened last week, after Kamala Harris’ first campaign rally.
“Donald Trump wants to take our country backward,” she said in Milwaukee. “He and his extreme Project 2025 agenda. Like, we know we got to take this seriously. And can you believe they put that thing in writing? Read it. It’s 900 pages.
“When you read it,” she goes on, “you will see Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare. They intend to end the Affordable Care Act and take us back, then, to a time when insurance companies had the power to deny people with preexisting conditions.”
CNN, to its credit, read the 900-page document, or at least skimmed it, and in an articleheadlined “Fact check: Harris falsely claims Project 2025 blueprint calls for cutting Social Security,” it reports that:
The Project 2025 document does not show that Trump intends to cut Social Security; the document barely discusses Social Security at all and does not propose cuts to the program. In addition, contrary to Harris’ suggestion, Project 2025 does not call to ‘end’ the Affordable Care Act or eliminate its protections for people with pre-existing conditions. The document does criticize the Affordable Care Act, especially the law’s expansion of Medicaid, but makes clear it is advocating changes to the law rather than terminating the law entirely. (emphasis added)
In one of the least surprising developments of all time, this week’s White Dudes for Kamala Zoom call was a festival of estrogen where a bunch of weirdos, losers, mutations, sissies, whiners, dorks, geeks, and other key sub-sections of the Democrat Party gathered in the electronic ether to humiliate themselves at the feet of their mediocre candidate. That was no surprise. I didn’t check out enough of it to see if they started with a land acknowledgment or if they reassured some of the men participating that it was understood that some of them menstruate because every second I watched, I felt the testosterone draining from my body. Fortunately, being a conservative, I’ve got it to spare.
It was good for a laugh, at least for a moment. When you see a man debase himself so thoroughly, especially someone you despise, your first reaction is to point and laugh. But then, after you watch this grisly tableau for a while, your emotions morph into mortification. It’s painful to watch someone make himself look like such a complete zero. You want to cry out, “For the love of all that’s holy, have some self-respect. There’s a thing called dignity! Try it out!” But then again, if you purport to be a man and you support Kamala Harris, that’s what you are—a complete zero.
The Democrat Party hates dudes and particularly white ones, but it loves their money, so we got this abomination. Notice how it’s “Dudes” and not “Men?” They are really, really uncomfortable using the word because the term “man” either offends or scares them, or both. It’s not that they’re all that familiar with men – as JD Vance accurately pointed out, a key Democrat constituency is lonely cat women who are unworthy of a man’s love, and you can feel their fussy resentment bubbling up. They got their own Zoom call to make fools of themselves. The White Women for Harris thing the other day was a bunch of affluent Chardonnay guzzlers getting together to tell each other how their role was to listen to and obey, to never correct BIPOC women, and to use their privilege for good instead of evil. If it were any more cringe, your spine would snap. This kind of ritual self-abnegation is bizarre and psychotic. And yet these women and alleged men revel in it.
In 2021, Matthew Garrett filed a lawsuit against the Kern Community College District after he was allegedly disciplined for voicing conservative views and questioning DEI policies at Bakersfield College, where Garrett taught history.
Among other things, Garrett openly criticized Bakersfield's numerous alleged faculty trainings related to implicit bias and microaggressions; "racial quotas and preferences, affirmative action-type behavior ... [and] racially segregated classes"; and mandates related to COVID-19, as Blaze News previously reported.
Instead of following the guards' directive, the illegal aliens attempted to ram the vehicle past the base's holding area. Officers quickly deployed vehicle denial barriers, preventing the men from continuing onto the property.
Despite requests for more information from Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and many media inquiries, the Biden administration refused to provide the suspects' names and would not verify whether the men were in the country illegally.
According to reports, one of the men crossed over the southern border unlawfully a month before the incident. The other suspect reportedly overstayed a student visa.
Center for Immigration Studies requested additional information on their identities via a Freedom of Information Act request. The think tank stated that the federal government's lawyers rejected the request, claiming it was "clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy" and of "minimal public interest."
Todd Bensman, a senior national security fellow with CIS, reported Wednesday that federal court records revealed the identities of the men: Hasan Y. Hamdan and Mohammad K. Dabous.
Hamdan and Dabous are charged with Class B misdemeanors for allegedly trespassing on a military base. They face up to six months in prison and a $5,000 fine.
The charging documents, obtained by CIS, stated that the suspects "did unlawfully go upon a military installation for a purpose prohibited by law, to wit: knowingly and intentionally entering Marine Corps Base Quantico."
After the attempted breach in May, the men were handed over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. However, they were recently released after agreeing to "certain conditions," including "that they show up for all upcoming immigration proceedings and stay away from Quantico or any other military installation," Bensman reported based on the court records.
The suspects' attorney declined a request for comment from CIS.
During a May interview on the "Conservative Review with Daniel Horowitz," Bensman said, "If this is what I strongly believe it is, a terror attack on a highly symbolic U.S. military base, ... then this would be the very first terror attack on U.S. soil from somebody who crossed the border illegally."
The woman was on her way home from visiting her mother at a nursing home when the fatal carjacking happened.
An illegal immigrant from El Salvador is accused of running over and killing a grandmother with her own vehicle during a deadly carjacking Sunday at a 7-Eleven in Sterling, Virginia.
The male carjacked the vehicle owned by 54-year-old Melody Waldecker of Silver Spring, Maryland, around 11:39 a.m.
Two biological men are also being allowed to compete against women in the boxing division — “the most dangerous sport,” according to Jennifer Sey, founder and CEO of XX-XY Athletics.
“It’s happening in the Olympics; it's happening at the NCA finals; it's happening at the state track championship in Oregon and in Washington; and it's happening at the local high school. It's happened over 700 times in the last few years alone that males have stolen medals and trophies from females,” she tells Jill Savage and the “Blaze News Tonight” panel.
But what’s perhaps most upsetting is the IOC’s insistence that the two athletes have met gender eligibility requirements.
Keep these in mind as you contemplate the direction of the American government over the past 50 years and especially since the Obama election.
The Goals of Communism
(as read into the congressional record January 10, 1963, from "The Naked Communist" by Cleon Skousen)
1. U.S. acceptance of coexistence as the only alternative to atomic war.
2. U.S. willingness to capitulate in preference to engaging in atomic war.
3. Develop the illusion that total disarmament of the United States would be a demonstration of moral strength.
4. Permit free trade between all nations regardless of Communist affiliation and regardless of whether or not items could be used for war.
5. Extension of long-term loans to Russia and Soviet satellites.
6. Provide American aid to all nations regardless of Communist domination.
7. Grant recognition of Red China. Admission of Red China to the U.N.
8. Set up East and West Germany as separate states in spite of Khrushchev's promise in 1955 to settle the German question by free elections under supervision of the U.N.
9. Prolong the conferences to ban atomic tests because the United States has agreed to suspend tests as long as negotiations are in progress.
10. Allow all Soviet satellites individual representation in the U.N.
11. Promote the U.N. as the only hope for mankind. If its charter is rewritten, demand that it be set up as a one-world government with its own independent armed forces. (Some Communist leaders believe the world can be taken over as easily by the U.N. as by Moscow. Sometimes these two centers compete with each other as they are now doing in the Congo.)
12. Resist any attempt to outlaw the Communist Party.
13. Do away with all loyalty oaths.
14. Continue giving Russia access to the U.S. Patent Office.
15. Capture one or both of the political parties in the United States.
16. Use technical decisions of the courts to weaken basic American institutions by claiming their activities violate civil rights.
17. Get control of the schools. Use them as transmission belts for socialism and current Communist propaganda. Soften the curriculum. Get control of teachers' associations. Put the party line in textbooks.
18. Gain control of all student newspapers.
19. Use student riots to foment public protests against programs or organizations which are under Communist attack.
20. Infiltrate the press. Get control of book-review assignments, editorial writing, policymaking positions.
21. Gain control of key positions in radio, TV, and motion pictures.
22. Continue discrediting American culture by degrading all forms of artistic expression. An American Communist cell was told to "eliminate all good sculpture from parks and buildings, substitute shapeless, awkward and meaningless forms."
23. Control art critics and directors of art museums. "Our plan is to promote ugliness, repulsive, meaningless art."
24. Eliminate all laws governing obscenity by calling them "censorship" and a violation of free speech and free press.
25. Break down cultural standards of morality by promoting pornography and obscenity in books, magazines, motion pictures, radio, and TV.
26. Present homosexuality, degeneracy and promiscuity as "normal, natural, healthy."
27. Infiltrate the churches and replace revealed religion with "social" religion. Discredit the Bible and emphasize the need for intellectual maturity which does not need a "religious crutch."
28. Eliminate prayer or any phase of religious expression in the schools on the ground that it violates the principle of "separation of church and state."
29. Discredit the American Constitution by calling it inadequate, old-fashioned, out of step with modern needs, a hindrance to cooperation between nations on a worldwide basis.
30. Discredit the American Founding Fathers. Present them as selfish aristocrats who had no concern for the "common man."
31. Belittle all forms of American culture and discourage the teaching of American history on the ground that it was only a minor part of the "big picture." Give more emphasis to Russian history since the Communists took over.
32. Support any socialist movement to give centralized control over any part of the culture--education, social agencies, welfare programs, mental health clinics, etc.
33. Eliminate all laws or procedures which interfere with the operation of the Communist apparatus.
34. Eliminate the House Committee on Un-American Activities.
35. Discredit and eventually dismantle the FBI.
36. Infiltrate and gain control of more unions.
37. Infiltrate and gain control of big business.
38. Transfer some of the powers of arrest from the police to social agencies. Treat all behavioral problems as psychiatric disorders which no one but psychiatrists can understand.
39. Dominate the psychiatric profession and use mental health laws as a means of gaining coercive control over those who oppose Communist goals.
40. Discredit the family as an institution. Encourage promiscuity and easy divorce.
41. Emphasize the need to raise children away from the negative influence of parents. Attribute prejudices, mental blocks and retarding of children to suppressive influence of parents.
42. Create the impression that violence and insurrection are legitimate aspects of the American tradition; that students and special-interest groups should rise up and use united force to solve economic, political or social problems.
43. Overthrow all colonial governments before native populations are ready for self-government.
44. Internationalize the Panama Canal.
45. Repeal the Connally reservation so the United States cannot prevent the World Court from seizing jurisdiction over nations and individuals alike.
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